报告题目：Uncertainty modeling of water and environmental systems: an imprecise probability approach
报告人：Dr Guangtao Fu
地 点：浙江大学紫金港校区安中大楼A-322
时 间：2011年09月21日（星期三）上午9:30
报告人简介：
Dr Guangtao Fu is a lecturer in water and environmental engineering at the Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter, UK. He has a Bachelor's degree and a masters in hydraulic engineering from Shandong University, and a PhD in water resources engineering from Dalian University of Technology, China. Before joining the University of Exeter in 2006, he worked as a research assistant at University of Bristol, and a research associate at Imperial College London, UK. His research is focussed on conducting fundamental and applied research at the interface between water systems and decision making by combining simulation, optimization, and information technologies to tackle water and environmental issues in an uncertainty environment.
报告内容：
Uncertainty analysis is now widely applied in water system modeling to quantify prediction uncertainty from models and data. Conventional methods typically handle various types of uncertainty using a single characterizing approach, be it probability theory or fuzzy set theory. However, using a single approach may not be appropriate, particularly when uncertainties are of different types. For example, in flood estimation problems, random rainfall variables are used as model inputs and imprecise or subjective information is used to define model parameters. In the presentation, Dr Fu will present a general framework for water and environmental systems modeling that enables simultaneous consideration of two types of uncertainty: randomness represented using imprecise probabilities, and imprecision represented by fuzzy numbers. These two types of uncertainties are combined using random set theory and then propagated through a model to generate the lower and upper cumulative probabilities of model outputs. This framework will be demonstrated using two case studies: climate prediction and urban flooding problems, and the benefits of the framework will be discussed.
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浙江大学建筑工程学院水文与水资源工程研究所
2011年9月20日